Tua vs Herbert - how do we compare them with empirical evidence?

 


Health shouldn’t be ignored.

The narrative of Tua’s health is nauseating, yet relevant when evaluating the overall quality of a player. Talent isn’t only a measure of field production, it also encompasses the talent of availability. It cannot be argued that Herbert’s physical talent allows him to benefit from the luxury of availability and that is a talent that is far to often dismissed despite being incredibly important.

Winning %

A large contingent of football pundits will in one breath bloviate over the influence of the QB in a victory, while in the same breath excuse away a QB loss to a myriad of extenuating circumstances. I am of the opinion that Win/Loss metrics in the modern NFL is undisputedly a QB measurable. 

Herbert win% = .500

Tua win% = .590

Aggressive attempts

One of the lazy narratives that exhibits the overt ignorance of perspective is to equate arm strength with aggressive passing. In 2022 Tua was first in CAY/Cmp

▼ -- Completed air yards per completion - yards the ball traveled in the air past the line of scrimmage prior to a completion

Essentially Tua’s completions travelled farther through the air than any other QB. His avg was 8.8 yards through the air per completion. Herberts CAT/Comp was 31st in the league at 4.7 yards. Despite his superior arm he was almost half as aggressive as a thrower when considering his completions.

YAC Yard fallacy

The prevailing theory is that Tua benefited from a elite level of YAC yards considering the elite running talent of his two Alpha receivers. Another example of lazy and false narrative. In 2022 the top two teams in YAC yards where, surprisingly, The Kansas City Chiefs and The LA Chargers. Two of the strongest arm QB’s benefited from the most Yards after Catch! The Dolphins where 18th in the league in YAC. Yet, Tua was first in Y/A, AY/A, Y/C, NY/A, ANY/A. In short he was the most aggressive thrower in the league and RAC yards had absolutely no factor in padding the averages. The Chargers where second in RAC yards, and Herbert was middle of the pack in all the stats I just highlighted. 

Finally TD%
TD%
▼ -- Percentage of Touchdowns Thrown when Attempting to Pass 

In 2022 the top 2 QB’s where tied in TD% Mahomes and Tua at 6.3%. Herbert was 21st at 3.6%. To simplify perspective, both Tua and Herbert both had 25 TD passes in the 2022 season; however Herbert benefitted from 299 more pass attempts.

In every metric but one Tua is a far more prolific and efficient passer, however being available is a heavily weighted factor when evaluating a QB’s overall quality. 

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