The QB Sack is worth a field goal.


The nature of evaluating NFL defenses influence on the final tally is a theoretical exercise of quantifying infinite variables. In 2017 The Washington Post wrote an article where they quantified a sack as the equivalent of 1.75 points. The conclusions of their advanced analytical study is difficult to argue against. 

Yes, if we where to only look at total sacks as an individual stat in relationship with scoring outcomes then 1.75 seems reasonably accurate. However, if you expand your calculations to include turnovers and points directly related to a QB sack, then the point influence changes drastically. 

In my deep dive of the relationship between sacks and scoring outcomes I am of the opinion that a sack is worth on avg. 3 points.

Exhibit A

Miami vs Buffalo Wild Card Game 2023

Final Score: Bills 34 - Dolphins 31 

Statistically the Bills won almost EVERY team stat.


However Miami won in TWO very influential stats, Sacks and Turnovers; both teams registered two int's but the 3rd turnover forced by Miami was a sack fumble that led to a defensive TD. The Dolphins sacked Allen 7 times! That is 3 more than the Bills 2022 season high and almost 5 more than their 2022 season avg. of 2.3. I would argue that those 7 sacks where the only mathematical explanation for that ultra competitive playoff game. Unpacking how this example calculates into 3 points would manifest into a undigestible dicertatcion.

Exhibit B

Kansas City vs Philadelphia Super Bowl 57

Final Score: Chiefs 38 - Eagles 35

The oddities of this game our confounding. If you think that the Eagles, the best rushing team in 20 years being out-rushed by the Chiefs who had less attempts is the apex of oddity, you would be mistaken. Even more egregious is the 2022 Eagles where third ALL TIME in total sacks and yet they didn't register a single sack in that game, in contrast the Chiefs registered 2 sacks and one of those sacks led to the only turnover in the game; and to add insult to injury the sack\turnover resulted in 7 points. 



Sacks are not plays that live in a vacuum, the top 10 fumble lost leaders in the last 10 years are all QB's. If you consider that turnovers are either fumbles or int's, and the primary culprit of a turnover by fumble is a sack, then sacks are far more valuable than 1.75 points. Sacks can be analytically calculated as a field goal for the potential to flip a game. 



 

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