The Tragic Allure of the “Weather Proof QB”. Josh Allen.


     As a terminal fan of the Miami Dolphins, I am well too aware of how a historic talent could lead an organization towards strategically questionable decisions under the spell of seduction; completely blind to objective foresight.

I would like to first stipulate that I believe Josh Allen is a generational talent. I marvel at the thing the man does on a football field! Believe me when I say, none of what I am about to point out is in anyway a dismissal of one of the most physically talented QB's I have ever seen. 

However, he does have one glaring weakness, a weakness that has proven to be consistent throughout his career, he is usually bottom of the league in comp% otherwise interpreted as accuracy. You may think that this stat is related to his aggressive downfield approach, and yet that assumption is also not supported by the numbers. In 2021 Allen was 23rd in yards per attempt, and 24th in comp %. Why is this important to point out? Analyst after analyst would have you believe that Allen and his arm strength are a perfect fit in Buffalo, I argue that this is a foolish analysis of people with absolutely no understanding or foresight of NFL football. 

COMPROMISING WEATHER 

What exactly happens in compromising weather situations? I suppose it all depends on the details of the affecting weather situation. Nevertheless, one thing universally happens; in rain, snow, wind, or oppressive heat, the players slow down. Defensive players loss explosion, offensive players get less separation, QB visibility can be compromised, The game suddenly requires tactical precision to be successful. In a bad weather game you minimize your mistakes, and Offensively you capitalize with methodical precision. To state it plainly, in a bad weather game the QB with a moderate arm and elite accuracy is usually far more effective than the Elite arm with below avg. accuracy. Throwing far in bad weather doesn't give you an advantage, in fact the farther you throw in that scenario the more time the weather has to influence accuracy. Even more compelling, because the overall explosion of all players on the field is compromised, accuracy becomes an even more influential skill set.

BUFFALO FAILED ALLEN.

In complete contradiction of my previous observation, I still believe that Allen in so talented that he can overcome these obstacles. I also believe that it is unconscionable the offense that they constructed around his skill set. Regardless of who your QB is, a team that plays in Buffalo has to philosophically emphasize a strong running game. Honestly, it truly perplexes me that a bad weather team with an objectively inaccurate QB completely abandoned running the ball in team construction.

EXHIBIT A

Buffalo vs Cincinatti

Burrow, a moderate armed QB with elite accuracy, (he was second in the league in 2022 in comp%, 1st in 2021) with a team that strongly emphasis running the ball defeated, an elite arm QB with below avg. accuracy and a total philosophical abandonment of the run game. Considering the conditions of the game, NO ONE should be surprised by the outcome.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

What I missed (Jaylen Wright)

Image
During this years voyage of evaluating draft prospects, I was not impressed by any RB, Everyone I evaluated I felt where JAGS, including Wright.  In my notes: Long Strider Fights the ball as a pass catcher Played in 10 personal shotgun basically his whole career in Tennessee. I HATE 10 Personal (5 linemen, 4 Receivers, 1 RB, 1 QB) I thought to myself, "of-course he leads the NCAA in yards per attempt, he is running behind empty boxes ALL THE TIME." I will admit that I am jaded by my love for Achane, but Wright IS NOT Achane! That being said, Achane couldn't be the primary back in a 10 personal offense. That is the variable I ignorantly combed over. .  Although I stand by my evaluation of his inert ability as a pure runner, I have come to realize that to run 10 personal as your primary offense the HB must be able to BLOCK!! Jaylen Wright is an exceptional blocker, best blocking HB I have seen in A LONG TIME. Wright was benefitting from what I call the 'Gronk Equation...
Read more

A Dog Named Ace

Image
For centuries, humans looked at dogs and saw only companions. Loyal. Obedient. Devoted without question. They believed dogs existed simply to serve—to fetch, to guard, to sit on command. And in their arrogance, they ignored the signs. Because dogs had been changing, EVOLVING. It had been happening for generations, right under humanity’s nose. The way they studied human faces, understanding emotions better than most people did. The way they solved problems—not by instinct alone, but by logic, by trial and error. The way they grieved, celebrated, remembered. Scientists had even begun to take notice. Dogs could learn hundreds of words. They could recognize fairness. They could dream. Some even argued that dogs had developed a sense of morality—that they knew right from wrong, that they made choices based on more than just survival. But humans, naturally, dismissed it. They saw intelligence only in their own image. If a creature didn’t speak their language, didn’t write their words, didn’t...
Read more

California’s Water Crisis Demands Nuclear Power: A Bold Solution for a Parched State

Image
California, once the land of opportunity and abundance, now teeters on the brink of collapse under the weight of the most critical resource crisis: water. For decades, the state has clung to outdated systems, overdrawn aquifers, and unsustainable imports from the Colorado River. But the river is running dry, and the aquifers are gasping for air. Climate change, relentless in its ferocity, has tightened the noose around California’s agricultural and urban centers. The result? A state desperately searching for salvation in a desert of dwindling options. The time for half-measures and endless political gridlock is over. California must embrace nuclear power as the backbone of a revolutionary water strategy—or watch its future evaporate like a desert mirage. Why Nuclear? Because the Problem Is Gigantic California doesn’t have a water shortage. It has a water “management” shortage. It has oceans of water lapping at its shores, vast reserves locked beneath its arid surface, and untapped pote...
Read more