NFL wining is absolutely a QB statistic; both in perception and analytics.

Written by Daniel Suarez

    There is a growing trend in narrative to suggest that QB'S can not be judged by win-loss record. It may seem as if it is a reasonable conclusion considering the nature of football as a team sport with infinite unknown variables. However, I argue that not only are they ignoring universal football truths analytically, they also conveniently forget the history of QB accolades.

Perception

The NFL has always honored winning over stats. There are 26 QB exclusive players in The Pro Football Hall of Fame; "exclusive" meaning they did not play multiple positions. Only two QB's had losing records. The NFL has always valued winning above all, and for good reason; ultimately it is the only statistic that matters.

Turnovers.

For all the infinite variables that exist in a violent sport that uses an oblong ball, the sport still generates THE UNDISPUTED STATISTIC CHAMP  that directly results to winning in professional sports, not including the obvious final game points (TURNOVERS). It is staggering how reliable the turnover ratio has been towards wining in NFL history. A stat that hasn't fluctuated regardless of era, style, rules. Teams that win the turnover battle have won between 75-78% of all contest since even before the unification of the AFL and NFL. Win the turnover battle WIN THE GAME!!!

QB Analytics (adjusted yards per attempt)

A study was done in 2018 trying to identify the QB stat most related to winning. The winner in this study by a landslide was AYA. Yards per pass attempt with adjustments made for touchdowns and interceptions. The formula is AYA = (pass yards + 20*(pass TD) - 45*(interceptions thrown))/(passing attempts). It is not surprising that this stat was identified as the most valuable. The stat not only considers QB performance but also severely punishes turnovers. The study suggest that every 1 point in AYA leads to a +8.47 win%. Currently Patrick Mahomes is the career AYA Champ, he has a win% of 75%. Marino retired with practically all QB records, Montana has a higher career AYA and a higher career win%.

The nature of Turnovers

In 2021 there where 707 turnovers. 441 interceptions and 266 fumbles lost. Interceptions, a purely passing statistic, makes up the lion share of turnovers. Although this alone is clearly a case in point, it gets MUCH MUCH CLEARER when you consider; The top 10 players in fumbles lost were all QB's.

The QB position is by far the position that commits the most turnovers, it shouldn't be a surprise, they touch the ball on every offensive play. Therefor, as I have highlighted, winning is ABSOLUTELY a QB stat.


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